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中国正以令人窒息的速度向超级大国迈进

信源：美国之音｜编辑：2018-01-22

美媒称，中国已经成为或接近成为一个科技超级大国。不仅技术在进步，而且中国的雄心也在增强。

美国《华盛顿邮报》1月21日在题为《中国迈向科技超级大国的惊人转型》的文章中称，

美国国家科学基金会和国家科学委员会刚公布的《科学与工程指标》得出结论：中国已经成为或接近成为一个科技超级大国。科学和技术构成了社会经济发达和军事实力强大的知识基础，中国渴望在这两个领域成为世界的领先者。

仅仅25年前，中国的经济规模还很小，高科技产业几乎不存在。如今，中国正以“令人窒息”的速度向科技超级大国迈进。这份报告指出：中国已经变成世界第二大研发经费支出国，2015年全球研发经费总额近2万亿美元，中国占了21%。只有美国稍稍高一点，占到了26%。

如果当前的增长速度持续下去，中国将很快变成研发经费最大支出国。同时，中国已经大幅扩大了技术工人队伍。从2000年到2014年，每年获得理工科学士学位的大学毕业生人数从大约35.9万人增长到了165万人。而同期美国相应的毕业生人数则从大约48.3万人增长到了74.2万人。

不仅是中国的技术在进步，而且中国的雄心也在增强。中国的大部分高科技产品曾经包括组装在其他地方生产的先进组件，而现在中国正进军“诸如超级计算机和更小型的喷气式客机”等要求更高的领域。

科技是流动的，在中国取得的进步在其他地方也会被分享，反之亦然。如果中国在关键技术——卫星、导弹、网络战、人工智能、电磁武器上取得突破，结果可能是战略平衡发生重大转变。正如美中经济与安全审查委员会指出的那样，中国的技术实力会构成潜在的威胁。

“我们正卷入一场获取知识的全球竞赛”，美国国家科学基金会主席称，“我们今天可能是创新领导者，但其他国家正快速取得进展。”中国将其经济马车拴在先进技术上并不足为奇，重要的是我们是否有意愿和能力认清这一点并做点什么。

China's breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower

By Robert J. Samuelson  January 21, 2018 at 7:26 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/story.html

A Chinese LeEco uMax 85 TV is displayed in San Francisco in October 2016. (Jeff Chiu/AP)

The National Science Foundation and the National Science Board have just released their biennial "Science & Engineering Indicators," a voluminous document describing the state of American technology. There are facts and figures on research and development, innovation and engineers. But the report's main conclusion lies elsewhere: China has become — or is on the verge of becoming — a scientific and technical superpower.

 

We should have expected nothing less. After all, science and technology constitute the knowledge base for economically advanced societies and military powers, and China aspires to become the world leader in both. Still, the actual numbers are breathtaking for the speed with which they've been realized.

 

Remember that a quarter-century ago, China's economy was tiny and its high-tech sector barely existed. Since then, here's what's happened, according to the "Indicators" report:

● China has become the second- ­ largest R&D; spender, accounting for 21 percent of the world total of nearly $2 trillion in 2015. Only the United States, at 26 percent, ranks higher, but if present growth rates continue, China will soon become the biggest spender. From 2000 to 2015, Chinese R&D; outlays grew an average of 18 percent annually, more than four times faster than the U.S. rate of 4 percent.

● There has been an explosion of technical papers by Chinese teams. Although the United States and the European Union each produce more studies on biomedical subjects, China leads in engineering studies. American papers tend to be cited more often than the Chinese papers , suggesting that they involve more fundamental research questions, but China is catching up.

● China has dramatically expanded its technical workforce. From 2000 to 2014, the annual number of science and engineering bachelor's degree graduates went from about 359,000 to 1.65 million. Over the same period, the comparable number of U.S. graduates went from about 483,000 to 742,000.

Not only has Chinese technology expanded. It has also gotten more ambitious. Much of China's high-tech production once consisted of assembling sophisticated components made elsewhere. Now, says the report, it's venturing into demanding areas "such as supercomputers and smaller jetliners."

Of course, there are qualifications. China still lags in patents received. Over the past decade, American firms and inventors account for about half the U.S. patents annually, and most of the rest go to Europeans and Japanese. Recall also that China's population of 1.4 billion is more than four times ours; not surprisingly, it needs more scientists, engineers and technicians.

In a sane world — shorn of nationalistic, economic, racial and ethnic conflicts — none of this would be particularly alarming. Technology is mobile, and gains made in China could be enjoyed elsewhere, and vice versa. But in our contentious world, China's technological prowess is potentially threatening, as the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a congressional watchdog group, has often pointed out.

One danger is military. If China makes a breakthrough in a crucial technology — satellites, missiles, cyberwarfare, artificial intelligence, electromagnetic weapons — the result could be a major shift in the strategic balance and, possibly, war.

Even if this doesn't happen, warns the commission, China's determination to dominate new industries such as artificial intelligence, telecommunications and computers could lead to economic warfare if China maintains subsidies and discriminatory policies to sustain its firms' competitive advantage.

"Industries like computing, robotics, and biotechnology are pillars of U.S. economic competitiveness, sustaining and creating millions of high-paying jobs and high-value-added exports," the commission said in its latest annual report. "The loss of global leadership in these future drivers of global growth" would weaken the American economy. Chinese theft of U.S. industrial trade secrets compounds the danger.

The best response to this technological competition is to reinvigorate America's own technological base. For example: Overhaul immigration to favor high-skilled newcomers, not relatives of previous immigrants; raise defense spending on new technologies to counter China; increase other federal spending on "basic research." (Government provides most of the money for this research, which is the quest for knowledge for its own sake, and amazingly has cut spending in recent years).

"We are involved in a global race for knowledge," said France Córdova, head of the NSF. "We may be the innovation leader today, but other countries are rapidly gaining ground."

It is hardly surprising that China has hitched its economic wagon to advanced technologies. What is less clear and more momentous is our willingness and ability to recognize this and do something about it.