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中国不再尊重美国,他们有理由这样做

(2023-06-07 15:42:32) 下一个

中国不再尊重美国,他们有理由这样做

托马斯·弗里德曼 2021年3月24日
 
有时候,喜剧演员比任何外交官都更擅长解读外交政策问题。比如比尔·马厄(Bill Maher)几周前那场有关美中关系的经典吐槽,一下子就抓住了两国之间最令人不安的对比:中国仍然可以搞定大事。美国则不然。
 
对于我们的许多政治领导人而言,执政已经成为了体育竞技、娱乐或仅仅是无脑的部落战争。难怪中国领导人视我们为一个衰落的帝国,靠美国“例外主义”的余灰为生。我希望我能说他们都错了。
 
“新规则:如果你是一群‘愚民’,你将不会赢得21世纪的战斗。美国人是一群愚民,”马厄说。“这是《阿拉伯的劳伦斯》(Lawrence of Arabia)的经典台词,当劳伦斯告诉他的贝都因盟友,只要他们的部落继续争吵不休,他们就仍然是一群‘愚民’。”
 
“我们都知道中国在做坏事。他们违反了香港自治的承诺;他们将维吾尔人关在拘禁营,并惩罚持不同政见者。而我们不想成为那样。但我们得在告诉所有人该做什么的威权政府和什么都做不了的代议制政府之间找个位置。”
 
马厄还说:“我们从2009年开始每周都在搞举国的‘基建周’,但我们什么都没有做。半个国家正在进行一场永无休止的‘觉醒’比赛。……而另一半认为我们必须阻止蜥蜴人,因为他们在吃婴儿。……中国看到问题就解决问题。他们修了一个水坝。而我们争论如何为它更名。”
 
是的,中国有严重的问题。它的领导者没有三头六臂,但他们专注于真实的成功指标。“中国领导人是凶狠而脆弱的,”咨询公司安可顾问公司(APCO Worldwide)大中华区董事长麦健陆(James McGregor)说。“正是因为他们不是由选民选出的,他们每天醒来都害怕他们的人民,这使他们非常注重业绩”——尤其是围绕就业、住房和空气质量。
相比之下,如今,美国的政客是从安全的、操纵划分选举版图的选区选出的,他们仅仅是通过为选民“表演”民粹主义桥段来寻求继续执政。
 
每当我指出这一点时,极右或极左批评家都会荒唐地回应,“哦,所以你爱中国。”实际上,我对中国不感兴趣。我在乎的是美国。我的目的是通过让更多的美国人明白,中国可以非常邪恶,它也非常专注于教育人民、建设基础设施、采用商业和科学最佳实践以及凭业绩提拔政府官员——这些是同时存在的,来让我们从自满中惊醒。如果我们在这些方面不能与其匹敌,那么谴责中国的邪恶行为将产生不了任何影响。
 
在上周中美两国最高外交官举行的阿拉斯加会议上,中国官员表现得十分明确,他们不再惧怕我们的批评,因为他们不像过去那样尊重我们,而且他们认为其他国家也是如此。就像中国最高外交政策制定者杨洁篪大胆地告诉他的美国对等官员:“你们没有资格在中国的面前说,你们从实力的地位出发同中国谈话。”
 
感到意外吗?我们的上任总统激励他的追随者洗劫我们的国会大厦;他的党派中多数人不承认我们的民主选举结果;我们的一名国会议员认为是犹太人操作的太空激光引起了森林大火;左翼无政府主义者被允许接管波特兰市中心的一部分,造成数月之久的破坏;在大流行期间,中国增发货币是为了投资更多的基础设施,而美国增发货币以帮助消费者保持支出——相当一部分商品是中国制造的;并且美国的枪支暴力已经失控。你们认为以上这些中国人没有注意到吗?
 
你真认为他们没有注意到吗?
 
这让我想到了计划在中国举行的2022年冬奥会。
 
越来越多的呼声开始建议我们抵制在中国举行的这次运动会。我支持这个呼吁,当我们目睹中国摧毁了香港的民主基础设施,并利用拘禁营残酷镇压新疆的维吾尔族穆斯林,而对世界舆论完全漠不关心。我们怎么可能无视所有这些而专注于滑冰?
 
但是实际上:我们真正需要集中注意力去获胜的不是2022年的奥运会,而是“2025年的奥运会”。
 
哦,你还没听说2025年奥运会吗?它不在你的NBC节目日历上?好吧,它可是在习近平的日历上。2015年,习近平单方面宣布了2025年奥运会,并表示只有两个参赛选手:中国和美国。这是习近平政府称为“中国制造2025”的倡议。
 
这是中国制造业基地现代化的十年计划,通过大规模投入政府资源,使习近平定义的10个21世纪关键高科技产业占主导地位,这无疑是在向美国发出挑战。
 
这些行业包括人工智能;电动汽车和其他新能源汽车;5G通讯;机器人技术;新农业技术;航天和海洋工程;合成材料;以及生物医学。
 
就在几周前,当中国发布执行到2025年的第14个五年计划时,习近平基本上加大了其政府在“创新驱动发展”方面的投资力度。这是在告诉美国:我们将用你们的玩法打赢你,这样我们就永远再也不用依赖你获得高科技产品。
 
我要对中国说的是:小心点。你的某些外交官听起来太自大了。正如谚语所说:“骄傲在败坏以先,狂心在跌倒之前。”美国在许多领域仍然表现出色。
 
但是,我要对美国同胞说的是:我们现在必须重新并加倍使用我们的成功秘诀。
 
那就是:教育我们的劳动力,使其达到并超越技术所需要的水平;建设世界上最好的港口、公路和电信基础设施;吸引世界上最具活力和高智商移民以加强我们的大学以及开展新业务;制定最佳监管以激励冒险精神同时遏制罔顾后果的行为;并且稳步增加政府资助的研究项目,以突破科学极限,使我们的企业家能够将最有前途的新想法转化为初创企业。
 
在这方面是有一些希望的,麦健陆指出:“国会已经开始整理上届国会提出的数百项中国法案,以制订两党立法,以投资科学技术、研发以及在美国在中国宣称的下一个前沿领域的相同技术上的领导地位。”拜登总统说要花数万亿美元!
 
 
没有什么比这更重要了。因为好的想法——尊重人权、民主,拥有独立的司法机构、自由市场、对少数族裔的保护——在世界范围内赢得支持,不仅仅是因为这些想法很好。它们扩散开来并被接受,是因为其他人看到,正在实践这些想法的国家得到了正义、权力、财富、机会和稳定。
 
在20世纪,美国理念注入了每一个全球体制,因为我们强大了,而我们之所以强大,是因为我们经常去实践我们的理念。
 
但是,如果我们继续像最近那样表现——“如我们所愿地愚蠢”——那么我们的权力将被削弱,随之而来的是,我们的理念带来的力量也会被削弱。无论我们如何大喊“美国,美国,美国”,我们对中国乃至整个世界的影响力都将逐渐减弱。所以,让我们确保赢得关键的那场奥运会。

China Doesn't Respect Us Anymore — for Good Reason

We've stopped following our formula for success.

 

 

Sometimes a comedian cuts through foreign policy issues better than any diplomat. Bill Maher did that the other week with an epic rant on U.S.-China relations, nailing the most troubling contrast between the two countries: China can still get big things done. America, not so much.

For many of our political leaders, governing has become sports, entertainment or just mindless tribal warfare. No wonder China’s leaders see us as a nation in imperial decline, living off the leftover fumes of American “exceptionalism.” I wish I could say they were all wrong.

“New Rule: You’re not going to win the battle for the 21st century if you are a ‘silly people.’ And Americans are a silly people,” said Maher. “That’s the classic phrase from ‘Lawrence of Arabia’ — when Lawrence tells his Bedouin allies that as long as they stay a bunch of squabbling tribes, they will remain ‘a silly people.’ …

“We all know China does bad stuff. They break promises about Hong Kong autonomy; they put Uyghurs in camps and punish dissent. And we don’t want to be that. But it’s got to be something between authoritarian government that tells everyone what to do and a representative government that can’t do anything at all.”

 

Maher added: “On a national level, we’ve been having Infrastructure Week every week since 2009, but we never do anything. Half the country is having a never-ending ‘woke’ competition. … The other half believes we have to stop the lizard people, because they’re eating babies. … China sees a problem and they fix it. They build a dam. We debate what to rename it.”

Yes, China has huge problems. Its leaders are not 10 feet tall, but they are focused on real metrics of success. “China’s leaders are fierce but fragile,” argues James McGregor, the chairman of the consultancy APCO Worldwide, Greater China. “Precisely because they were not elected, they wake up every day scared of their own people, and that makes them very focused on performance” — particularly around jobs, housing and clean air.

By contrast, many U.S. politicians these days are elected from safe, gerrymandered districts and seek to stay in power by just “performing” for their base with populist theatrics.

Whenever I point this out, critics on the far right or far left ridiculously respond, “Oh, so you love China.” Actually, I am not interested in China. I care about America. My goal is to frighten us out of our complacency by getting more Americans to understand that China can be really evil AND really focused on educating its people and building its infrastructure and adopting best practices in business and science and promoting government bureaucrats on merit — all at the same time. Condemning China for the former will have zero impact if we’re not its equal in all of the latter.

At last week’s Alaska meeting between America’s and China’s top diplomats, Chinese officials made it quite clear that they no longer fear our criticism, because they don’t respect us as they once did, and they don’t think the rest of the world does, either. Or as Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign affairs policymaker, baldly told his U.S. counterparts: “The United States does not have the qualification … to speak to China from a position of strength.”

 

Surprised? What did you think, that the Chinese didn’t notice that our last president inspired his followers to ransack our Capitol, that a majority of his party did not recognize the results of our democratic election, that a member of our Congress believes that Jewish-run space lasers cause forest fires, that left-wing anarchists were allowed to take over a section of downtown Portland, creating havoc for months, that during the pandemic the U.S. printed money to help its consumers keep spending — much of it on Chinese-made goods — while China printed money to invest in even more infrastructureand that gun violence in America is out control?

 

You think they didn’t notice?

Which brings me to the 2022 Winter Olympics, scheduled for China.

A rising number of voices are beginning to suggest that we boycott the China Games. I have sympathy with that call, as we watch China crush the infrastructure of democracy in Hong Kong and use internment camps to brutally suppress Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang with utter indifference to world opinion. How do we just ignore all that and focus on ice skating?

But here’s the thing: The competition that we really need to focus on winning is not the 2022 Olympics but the 2025 Olympics.

Oh, you haven’t heard of the 2025 Olympics? They are not on your NBC calendar? Well, they are on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calendar. Xi unilaterally declared the 2025 Olympics in 2015 and suggested that there would be only two competitors: China and America. It was an initiative that Xi’s government called “Made in China 2025.”

It was a 10-year plan to modernize China’s manufacturing base by massively investing government resources to dominate what Xi defined as the 10 key high-tech industries of the 21st century, and he was implicitly daring America to go head-to-head.

 

The industries include artificial intelligence; electric cars and other new energy vehicles; 5G telecommunications; robotics; new agricultural technologies; aerospace and maritime engineering; synthetic materials; and biomedicine.

And just a few weeks ago, when China issued its 14th five-year plan, to run through 2025, Xi basically doubled down on his government’s investment in “innovation-driven development.” Message to America: We will try to beat you at your own game so we will never, ever again be dependent on you for high-tech goods.

My message to China is: Be careful. Some of your diplomats sound awfully arrogant. As the proverb says: “Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.” America still excels in a lot of areas.

But my message to my fellow Americans is: We now have to return to and double down on what was our formula for success.

And that is: educating our work force up to and beyond whatever technology demands; building the world’s best infrastructure of ports, roads and telecommunications; attracting the world’s most energetic and high-I.Q. immigrants to enrich our universities and start new businesses; legislating the best regulations to incentivize risk-taking while curbing recklessness; and steadily increasing government-funded research to push out the boundaries of science so our entrepreneurs can turn the most promising new ideas into start-ups.

 

On this front there is some hope, noted McGregor: “Congress has begun sorting through the hundreds of China bills introduced in the last Congress to forge bipartisan legislation to invest in science and technology, R&D and U.S. leadership in the same technologies that China has declared as the next frontiers.” And President Biden is talking about spending trillions!

Nothing could be more important. Because good ideas — respect for human rights, democracy, an independent judiciary, free markets, protection for minorities — don’t just win in the world because they are good ideas. They diffuse and are embraced because others see them producing justice, power, wealth, opportunity and stability in countries that practice them.

American ideals infused every global institution in the 20th century because we were powerful, and we were powerful because more often than not we implemented our ideals.

But, if we as a country continue to act as we have of late — “dumb as we want to be” — then our power will be diminished and with it the power of our ideals. We will have steadily less influence on China and on the world at large no matter how loudly we chant “U.S.A., U.S.A., U.S.A.” So, let’s make sure we win the Olympics that count.

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