风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
世界上只有一个国家热衷于对他国指指点点
近日，美国智库亚洲协会举办了一场名为“美国、中国和全球秩序的未来”研讨会，邀请新加坡前常驻联合国代表、著名学者马凯硕（Kishore Mahbubani），同协会副会长兼美中关系中心主任夏伟（Orville Schell）围绕上述问题同台舌战。俗话说，真理越辩越明，不妨看看他们谁占理。
▲ 2024年3月，新加坡知名学者、资深外交官马凯硕在纽约亚洲协会与美国学者夏伟就中美关系与世界秩序展开激烈讨论。
一、中国变了吗？
夏伟称，中国发展成就令人惊叹，但随着国力增强，共产党领导下的中国“彻底变了”。当前，中国强势强硬，通过大搞“战狼外交”同各国敌对，在全球推行“威权主义”。美国对此十分担忧，不知该如何看待变化了的中国及其战略目标。
马凯硕指出，所谓“中国变了”“战狼外交”等说辞，纯属盎撒媒体的偏见和炒作。占全球人口88%的非西方世界有着完全不同的“中国观”。
研讨会现场，马凯硕提及，占全球人口88%的非西方世界有着完全不同的“中国观”。
我们见证了中华文明4000年的兴衰发展，清楚中国复兴是非常自然的历史回归。凡是见过中国领导人的人都予以高度评价，认为他是一位智慧理性、冷静清醒、通情达理的大国领袖，正在带领中国人民团结奋斗，努力实现中华民族伟大复兴。我认为这就是中国的战略目标。
中国追求的民族复兴是要让中国人民过上好日子，而不是折腾全球，更不是对外输出意识形态。坦率地说，世界上只有一个国家热衷于对他国内部政治制度指指点点，那就是美国。（全场观众闻声大笑。）
现场有观众提问“特朗普2.0”可能给美国带来何种变化。夏伟及研讨会美方主持人对此表态十分拘谨，仅强调“特朗普2.0”只是一个假设性问题。
马凯硕则坦陈，多数国家希望拜登胜选，因为他更可预测。如果特朗普再次当选，世界将面临更大挑战。事实上，如果美国将更多精力投入国内事务，改善底层民众生活质量，美国民众就不会投票给特朗普。（夏伟默然点头。）
2023年，美国无家可归者人数大幅上升，包括芝加哥、迈阿密、波士顿和菲尼克斯等大多数主要城市都出现了增长。
二、中美只能对抗吗？
夏伟称，如今美国战略界很多人认为，由于中国的改变，美国对华数十年的“接触”政策已经失败，美中正走向竞争与对抗。特别是在台湾问题上，中国正加速“武统”，美国不能置之不理。“今日乌克兰，明日台湾”是美国及世界必须正视的重大现实威胁。
2024年2月，美国驻华大使伯恩斯接受美国媒体采访时表示，美国不想生活在被中国主导的世界里。
马凯硕表示，要理解当前的中美关系，首先要看清三大全球变化：一是世界经济重心正在转移到亚洲，21世纪迎来“亚洲世纪”。二是美国冷战后独享的单极世界已经结束，我们正走向一个新的两极或多极世界，美国必须适应其他国家不会轻易屈服的现实。三是许多历史悠久的文明加速复兴，过去200年西方文明主导的世界正走入多元文明共存的新纪元。美国以“竞争”重新定义对华关系，实质就是为了应对三大全球变化，防范自身霸权被取代。
但外界不清楚美国对华新战略目标是什么。是要阻止中国经济增长吗？这做不到。是要复制对苏联的冷战来遏制中国吗？这也做不到。美国必须认识到，中国的崛起不取决于美国或是世界其他国家，而是由14亿多中国人民推动的，是不可阻挡的。
研讨会现场，马凯硕直言，他对一些“盎格鲁-撒克逊媒体”对中国的误判不买账。
不要低估美国，也不要低估中国。要尊重强大的美国，也要尊重强大的中国。当前，世界其他国家对美中之间缺乏战略互信深感担忧。
希望美国能少一些对华“接触”或是“对抗”的争论，认识到必须要与一个强大中国“共存”的现实。国际社会190多个国家同舟共济，在一艘船上搞内讧或是搞孤立是不明智的。
美国应该为美中竞争按下“暂停键”，同中国合作应对气候变化、大流行病等全球性挑战。这符合美国的国家利益，也符合全球的共同利益。
台湾问题是唯一可能导致美中爆发直接冲突的问题。这是中国近代屈辱史遗留的最后一道伤痕，国家统一寄托着中国人民强烈的民族感情，美方一定要明白台湾问题的重要性和敏感性。
2023年4月10日，东部战区圆满完成环台岛战备警巡和“联合利剑”演习。这是演练前夜参演火箭军某部在进行转载导弹训练。
2003年陈水扁搞“入联公投”谋求“台独”时，布什政府曾明确表态反对。如果美国能继续保持这种立场，台海就不会发生战争。
三、中国在制造世界动荡吗？
夏伟称，中国正在以令人不安的方式扩大全球影响，在南海、中印边境等问题上制造动荡，同日、韩、菲、越等周边国家分歧激化，给周边和世界带来不稳定因素。东南亚许多国家亲美厌中但“不愿明说”。美国不会逼迫各国公开选边站队，但全球南方和东南亚国家一定要对中国的意图保持清醒认识。
马凯硕表示，全球南方国家很清楚，世界上不存在什么“仁慈大国”，每个国家都在追求自身利益。世界大多数发展中国家对华贸易额远高于对美贸易额，全球南方为什么要放弃同中国保持良好关系，放弃从对华贸易中获取巨额利益呢？绝大多数国家很高兴看到一个强大的美国和一个强大的中国在某种程度上取得平衡，希望同美中都保持良好的关系，不会选边站队。
2024年1月22日，江苏南通的粮油接运码头正在卸运进口巴西玉米。
东南亚有两倍于美国的人口和世界上最复杂的种族结构，但总体能够保持地区长期和平稳定，正是因为地区国家善于灵活应对复杂地缘政治，懂得如何与美国和中国同时保持良好关系。
▲ 2024年3月7日，马来西亚总理安瓦尔在澳大利亚国立大学发表演讲，表示对中国而言，采取阻碍中国在军事、经济和技术方面崛起的措施无异于试图否认其在历史上应有的地位。
菲律宾历届政府在美中之间形成了某种摇摆式平衡；印尼既是美国的朋友，也是中国的朋友；越南朋友告诉我，既不对中国示弱，又善于同中国合作，正是该国与中国共处千年的智慧。关于南海问题，不能只看一时“快照”，而要看长远图景。美国不是当事方，形势没有炒作的那么严重，事实上当事各方能够总体保持克制。
“如果你想进入一个世界，不同文化和文明和平相处，可以到东盟来，到东南亚来。不要对这个地区表现出居高临下的优越感。东南亚已经做到了非凡的事情，可资世界借鉴的经验之一就是如何避免战争。”（马凯硕话音未落，全场掌声响起。）
马凯硕最后总结说，世界应接受中国复兴的现实，与中美两国同时保持良好关系；也希望中美能妥处分歧，携手共同应对全人类面临的重大难题。
中国的崛起不取决于美国或是世界其他国家，而是由14亿多中国人民推动的，是不可阻挡的。
活动现场座无虚席，以纽约各界精英和各国外交官为主的观众多次为马凯硕发言鼓掌。辩论全程视频上传网络后，评论几乎一边倒赞同马凯硕，支持中美和平共处而非竞争对抗，认为夏伟等人固执反华的看法对中美两国乃至世界不利。你怎么看？
The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order with Kishore Mahbubani and Orville Schell
NEW YORK, March 21, 2024 — Asia Society Policy Institute, in partnership with Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania, hosts a discussion on the U.S.-China relationship and how it impacts global trends. Speakers include Kishore Mahbubani, 2023-24 Schlager visiting fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Perry World House; and Orville Schell, Arthur Ross director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations. Rorry Daniels, managing director of Asia Society Policy Institute, moderates the conversation.
Asia Inside Out brings together our team and special guests to take you beyond the latest policy headlines and provide an insider’s view on regional and global affairs. Each month we’ll deliver an interview with informed experts, analysts, and decision-makers from across the Asia-Pacific region. If you want to dig into the details of how policy works, this is the podcast for you.
This podcast is produced by the Asia Society Policy Institute, a “think-and-do tank” working on the cutting edge of current policy trends by incorporating the best ideas from our experts and contributors into recommendations for policy makers to put these plans into practice.
The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIfb7BUiqHY&ab_channel=
Asia Society 2024年3月22日
Kishore Mahbubani:
美国的目的是要阻止中国的经济增长吗？
做不到
美国的目的是要腿法中国共产党执政吗？
这也做不到
美国的目的是要像当年遏制苏联没那样遏制中国吗
这还是做不到
既然这些都做不到，那么全世界都要问美国一个简单的问题，美国与中国战略竞争的终极目标究竟是什么？
<<<<<<>>>>>>
主持人：
大家晚上好，欢迎光临，我很高兴今晚能在这里主持会议
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我们确信，这将是一场关于中美竞争、未来和世界未来的热烈讨论。
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全球秩序，正如 H 所说，我是 RI Daniels，我是亚洲协会政策研究所的常务董事
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我把谈话转给科雷和奥维尔，听听他们的想法
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关于我们在中国的竞争的初步想法我确实想谈谈我们现在的处境，所以在
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最后让我们说25年来美国中国发生了很多变化
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部分原因是这些国家在 25 年来发生了巨大变化
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嗯随着中国进入世界经济全球化的进程
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那种引擎向前转动的速度要快得多，嗯，有
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亚洲的力量平衡确实发生了转变，而且也发生了变化。
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该过程创造了许多新的机遇和挑战
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经济一体化以及我们所有人都面临的技术革命
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他们的经历确实改变了这两个国家看待彼此的方式以及他们在世界上的地位
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我们现在正处于美中关系已经脱离正常状态的时期
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在乔治·布什 2 统治下相对合作的基础
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奥巴马政府外交进程中的战略与经济对话
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双边关系确实面临一系列新的刺激和挑战
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关系，其中一些挑战与你知道随着中国的崛起而改变的中国体系有关
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经济价值链并开始优先考虑批发之上的事情
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经济增长的一些转变与我们对全球化的反应以及全球化的指责有关。
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人们对中国的看法是正确还是错误，因为它在你知道的方面的作用可能正在减弱
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美国在世界上的竞争力 经济竞争力 嗯但是
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不管怎样，无论你如何看待这种情况，毫无疑问，这种关系现在被视为一种不属于一种关系的关系。
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合作共存或外交优先，但实际上是战略竞争
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在某些情况下，战略竞争因此考虑到这一背景我
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想从吴开始，然后转向奥维尔做一些开场白，嗯什么
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从您的角度来看，美国和中国正在竞争，为什么会产生什么样的结果
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您认为这两个国家希望实现其在世界上的作用以及其在世界范围内的作用吗？
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彼此的关系就交给你了
基肖尔·马凯硕：
谢谢罗里，首先让我开始
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感谢哈米德和你欢迎我回到亚洲协会，我确实觉得
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就像这几乎是我的第二个家，因为我第一次来到亚洲协会是在 40 年前的 1984 年，当时我还是第一次
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任命新加坡驻联合国大使，我过去常常来这里，所以回到这里就像回来一样
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回家，我也很高兴成为佩里井院的研究员呃代表
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也在这个呃讨论中，所以嗯
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回答你的问题 罗里呃 我想你可以先回答关于我们中国走向的具体问题
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重要的是要强调我们正在处理这个问题
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在一个非常不同的全球背景下，我们必须理解这一点
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如果你想了解推动美国发展的动力，那么困难的不同 Glo Global 背景
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中国呃关系和世界至少在三个基本方面发生了变化，首先是
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坦率地说，21世纪美国与中国的竞争将主要集中在亚洲
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现在，当我说这将是亚洲世纪时，我的意思是什么？这意味着经济力量的转移
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将转移到亚洲，最大的经济体将在亚洲，只是为了
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说明这一点呃在 20 世纪 60 年代不久前就进入了前五名
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经济体为零 亚洲为零 今天三个是前五名
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亚洲，正如你所知，未来的增长将来自亚洲，所以
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这是一个重大转变，呃，第二个在地缘政治方面正在发生，显然我们正在采取行动
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从单极世界到至少两极世界，我想说的是
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这实际上是多极海洋中的两极世界，因为许多新的其他新力量正在出现
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变得更加积极主动，因此美国在冷战结束时享有的单极时刻正在
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消失了，但很多人还没有适应它消失了的事实，而你
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现在必须生活在一个必须与纯粹权力和其他不具备这些权力的重要权力抗衡的世界
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必然会如此轻易地屈从于大国的意愿，因此我们拥有一个更加复杂的世界
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处理第三点也是同样重要的一点
文化
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在维度上，我们也看到了一些根本性的转变，我们所拥有的世界在某种意义上正在发生：
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过去200年来一直由一种文明西方文明统治
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如果你在 19 呃 24 坐在这里，你知道，西方国家在 100 年前就殖民了整个地区
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韦斯特毫不费力地跑遍了整个世界，现在你有一个
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多阀多明正在重新崛起并恢复实力，所以即使在
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文化方面，这是一个不同的世界 所以在这个更大的全球背景下，我们也看到了美国 中国
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那么为什么会发生这种情况呢？原因很简单，就是曼联
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各国正在做的事情正是任何第一大国看到这一情况时都会做的事情
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竞争对手的出现，确保竞争对手不会超越它，从而将其压低
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这就是所有大国所做的，所以美国所做的不是
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令人惊讶的是它是可预测的，如果你输入 X 或 Y，这正是
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发生这种情况是因为美国已经习惯了成为第一，它不希望看到这个地方被另一个大国抢走，但在
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同时这是可以预见和预期的
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世界其他地方显然正在观看这场比赛并且对此非常担心，但不清楚的是
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争论美国的主要战略目标到底是什么？
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你知道这场比赛，坦率地说，正如我在我的书中所说，中国有一个
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当我写书时，我从亨利·基辛格的一对一谈话中得到了关于中国获胜并击中目标的见解。
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您在讲话中也在某种程度上提到了这一点，例如美国的目标是阻止
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中国的经济增长也许这就是为什么会有贸易关税、芯片制裁等等。
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目标无法完成还是推翻中共的目标
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再次聚会我稍后会解释可以
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已经完成了，还是目标是像美国对苏联所做的那样
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它有效地将其限制在一个小宇宙中并使其脱离
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再次从世界其他地方发送，正如我稍后将解释的那样，这是不可能的，所以在结束时
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那天世界要问的是美国到底想要什么
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在这场比赛中取得的成绩以及最终的比赛是什么
主持人：
好的，太棒了，您已经提出了很多内容供我们回来讨论，包括嗯根本性的变化
8:39
多极体系的崛起 亚洲的经济实力和活力
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我认为这是一个非常有趣的新文化，我们应该回过头来讨论，但也提出了很多问题
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关于我们的战略目标，奥里尔能否告诉我们您的观点是什么？
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美国和中国在竞争，为什么你知道美国希望借此达到什么目的以及结局是什么
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说明我们正在寻找
奥维尔·谢尔：
嗯，总是很高兴
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与科雷交谈，因为它立即让我以我不曾想到的方式思考
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通常我必须想到嗯之后我想到的第一个想法
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听到你的言论就是这个你问美国新战略是什么呃
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1972年后我想我们可以订婚了我想问你怎么办
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认为中国的战略就是他们所追求的，因为实际上这是一场舞蹈
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在两个伙伴之间，这不仅仅取决于美国，因为我相信你会同意，所以你认为中国是什么
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之后，如果我可以问你一个问题，什么是强大的力量
9:56
假装采用狼武士外交对抗我是说谁
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对抗加拿大 瑞典 挪威 澳大利亚 印度 I
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意思是我可以继续说下去，为什么这里发生了什么事？
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任何人的优势都少得多
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中国
基肖尔·马凯硕：
我我我我我我我期待着开场白
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哦，请原谅我，我以为你会有大约七分钟的准备时间
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评论给我一些思考，但我我非常我很高兴o回答呃你的
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问题，如果你不介意再次请原谅我这样做呃当你
10:47
谈论我们的世界以及世界如何看待中国
10:55
目标和策略是我希望你们牢记的一个非常重要的
11:00
据统计，世界上12%的人口生活在西方
11:06
世界上 88% 的人口生活在西方以外，让我非常强调一点
11:13
从一开始就明确且非常大胆地表明 12% 的人认为中国不是
11:21
88％的人如何看待中国，例如，呃，当你问什么是
11:28
中国正在尝试ACC Lish，如果你愿意的话，我是否可以与你分享我从与我的谈话中得到的信息
11:35
亚洲同胞、非洲同胞和拉丁美洲同胞看到中国正在努力
11:43
以坚强的姿态再次回归
11:48
它曾经是文明，你知道中国是他更了解的
11:54
比我更重要的是，他是中国专家，我是，顺便说一句，我不是中国专家，让我强调一下，有一次我立即
12:01
我是中国观察员呃，当然我们必须是中国观察员，因为在东南部
12:07
众所周知，亚洲在地理上对我们影响最大的力量显然是中国
12:14
就像拉丁美洲将生活在美国的阴影下一样，东南亚也必须生活在其中
12:21
实际上是中国、印度和我自己的影子，所以强调我们的
12:26
和其他非洲人的观点是，我们已经看到这个文明已经有 4000 年了上升、下降、上升、下降
12:35
因此，中国的回归只是4000年漫长王朝历史的一部分
12:42
循环往复，当中华文明衰落时，就会衰落得非常非常严重
12:47
我认为奥勒比我们任何人都清楚他们经历了本世纪最糟糕的世纪之一
12:53
从1842年到1949年的屈辱，但这对中华文明来说并不正常
12:59
表现不佳这么长时间，他们在一段时间后回来是更正常的，所以我们从
13:06
比方说，亚洲是一个文明的回归，我们几个世纪以来一直见证着这个文明的起起落落，所以这是一个
13:13
现在自然回归，所以当中国试图在世界上占据一席之地时
13:18
现在你提到的事情，大国是一个完全自然的发展
13:24
呃，你用了狼战士外交这样的词，有趣的是
13:30
而“狼武士外交”这个词在盎格鲁-撒克逊人中经常使用
13:35
媒体，正如你所知，盎格鲁撒克逊媒体让我们非常直率地表达对中国和美国的偏见。
13:41
世界其他地区对盎格鲁撒克逊媒体对中国的评价不以为然
13:48
世界其他国家所做的就是看看中国做了什么，然后再处理
13:54
有了它，最终你会发现各个国家都有一个
14:02
他们想与中国进行贸易还是不想与中国进行贸易的选择
14:09
中国，如果你看看中国的事迹，今天中国与其他国家的贸易要多得多
14:15
世界上比美国更重要的是，我们也确实希望与美国进行贸易，但正如你所知，贸易
14:22
是一项自愿活动，但它对这样做的国家有利，所以你可以选择像巴西这样的国家，这是一个非常多的国家
14:29
与美国的距离比20年前与中国的距离还要近
14:34
巴西今天需要一年时间才能向中国出口10亿美元
14:41
巴西60小时内向中国出口10亿美元 为什么巴西不应该
14:49
与中国有正常的贸易关系，所以你可以明白这一点
14:54
我想告诉你的是，如果你看看南半球的许多国家，你会发现并非所有国家都如此。
15:01
南半球国家很高兴与中国建立正常关系，并且没有遇到任何困难
15:08
正如我所说，困难主要发生在联合国之间
15:13
国家和中国出于可以理解的原因，这也不是这样
15:19
当你有很大的权力转移时就会发生，我实际上认为在某些情况下
15:24
正如美国对中国的所作所为是可以预见的，中国对美国的反应也是如此
15:31
也是可以预见的
主持人：
当然，我们现在生活在一个真正相互联系的世界，正确的
15:38
正是这种关于伟大兴衰的叙述
15:44
大国最终会以不同的方式产生反响，各国都非常乐意与中国进行贸易，我将转向
15:50
奥维尔一会儿谈谈他的想法，你知道美国如何看待中国的行为，但从我的角度来看，我是这样认为的
15:56
不认为美国嗯想伤害阻碍损害中国的合法贸易
16:03
与世界各国进行贸易往来，但与此同时，这些国家与中国的贸易也在增加，他们也在寻求越来越大的利益
16:09
来自美国的安全援助 奥维尔，你能详细解释一下吗？有哪些担忧？
16:16
中国崛起时的行为正在引发这种需求信号
16:22
更多西方国家的关注，也许包括一些经济方面的关注
16:27
正如您提到的加拿大的活动，您如何看待中国在这个体系中的崛起以及
16:37
其对全球发展的潜在影响
奥维尔·谢尔：
我想你知道
16:45
嗯，吴，我同意你的观点，是的，中国完全有权利成为一个伟大的国家
16:51
力量，实际上他们已经取得了惊人的发展呃呃成功
16:57
我了解大国从来不喜欢被废黜和取代
17:03
其他人，但我认为在你的论点中，我想问你的是中国
17:10
不仅仅是另一个大国，它是习近平领导下的马克思列宁主义政权
17:17
1989 年北京大屠杀之后，ping 已经变得与我们在 80 年代甚至 90 年代经历的非常非常不同
25
和示威，我认为如果不考虑这一因素
17:32
我们不能只是说中国想成为一个大国想要贸易
17:38
每个人都想与它进行贸易，因为这个等式中还有另一个因素，即中国作为一个国家所追求的是什么
17:47
世界上新型的技术专制以及其他国家是否感受到
17:53
对此感到满意，现在我们在楼上谈论菲律宾，我看菲律宾
18:00
非常仔细，因为我认为这是一种 RoR 量表，我的意思是
18:05
东南亚很公平 新加坡夹在中间不想选择马来西亚 我明白但是呃
18:15
我认为我们可能正在接近这样一个地步：即使不是不可能，至少也会更加困难。
18:22
中间，我认为我们在菲律宾看到了这种认识的闪烁
18:27
现在承认世界总是在变化，所以我很好奇你如何看待这个世界
18:34
中国的内部政治转变正在回归一种更加呃的状态
18:41
Maest 模式并不完全如此，其他国家的舒适度如何
18:47
如果不是在世界上，你愿意接受中国在亚洲的霸权吗？
18:53
对此感到满意，我的意思是新加坡是一个小国家，你怎么样
18:59
感觉是的，您想继续交易，但我认为您还必须考虑其他因素
19:07
考虑周全
基肖尔·马凯硕：
首先，如果您不介意的话，请让我快速评论一下您提出的观点
19:12
罗里呃，当你提到呃国家也在向美国靠拢时呃你是绝对正确的
19:20
呃，我想强调的是，为了避免任何误解，全球都存在巨大的商誉储备
19:26
对于美国和世界来说，其实很高兴看到一个强大的美国和一个强大的中国
19:33
在某种程度上，如果它们相互平衡，这对于整个世界来说并不是太糟糕，所以这并不是说
19:39
世界正在争先恐后地拥抱中国，告别美国，这不是世界，而是世界上大多数国家
19:45
正如您自己所说，石油公司希望与美国和中国建立良好的关系，呃现在在您的国家
19:53
在你关于呃内部呃政治的观点中
19:59
中国的构成，中国不是变得更加马克思列宁主义或共产主义了吗？
20:05
我们担心这一点吗？我想在这里我想强调的是
20:10
世界上只有一个国家呃对内部做出判断
20:16
其他国家的政治制度，这是一个非常特殊的国家，我想你们都知道
20:23
美国例外论 我可以告诉你，你知道联合国离这里并不太远，只要一两英里，如果你
20:31
走进联合国你会发现最呃神圣的地方之一
20:37
《联合国宪章》的原则实际上是联合国非常坚决地坚持的
20:45
联合国成员国的原则是我们不会干涉彼此的内部事务
20:51
《联合国宪章》所载的事务以及该原则被采用
20:56
大多数国家在相互打交道时的态度是，世界上大多数国家的态度是你选择你的形式
21:02
政府 无论你选择什么，我们都会与政府打交道
21:07
权力，因此中国是否更马克思主义或更少马克思主义或民主或
21:13
不民主，我们可以选择，但我们无法选择，最终取决于中国人选择什么样的政府
21:19
他们有，但我确实认为我是否可以或愿意推动一点呃
21:25
回到你身上，你知道美国第一次陷入困境是什么时候
21:34
1971年爱中国请问谁是领导人
21:44
那时的中国是maong，你会称maong为伟大吗？
21:52
人权捍卫者 你会说他是 这是
21:58
具有自由思想的人 具有自由精神的人 你可以认识的人 培养
22:05
与你有亲属关系，知道我的意思，所以当谈到
22:12
地缘政治是一种非常残酷的商业意识形态，当
22:21
必要时可以带到 for，甚至在今天，如果你说
22:29
美国会站出来，站出来支持共产党
22:36
政权为什么要培育越南什么是
22:43
我的意思是，越南不是也有共产党执政吗？所以我这么说只是因为
22:52
世界其他地方 当我说世界其他地方已经改变时 他们已经变得很多
22:59
更复杂的是，他们看透了这一切，他们看到，是的，有一个严重的问题
23:05
美国和中国之间正在进行的地缘政治竞争非常激烈
23:10
担心这一点，他们想与双方保持良好的关系，他们不会做出判断，这不仅仅是为了公平或
23:18
不只是新加坡 我可以 如果你想要 100 个国家的名单 我可以给你
23:23
我可以给你列出 100 个国家
在那个位置
主持人：
我们可以谈谈吗
23:30
各国正在如何应对这一愿望，而不是做出这样的选择
23:36
从您的角度来看，哪些因素正在缩小国家的选择范围并做出选择
23:42
当大多数国家显然不想选择时，美国和中国之间的选择
23:48
或者希望能够选择两者，但同时这对美国都有利
23:54
中国和世界上有哪些主要的合作组织？
23:59
有刺激性的
奥维尔·谢尔：
在我开始讨论令人恼火的问题之前，让我先说一下，九个美国总统政府
24:08
全心全意地支持参与，我同意你的观点，你知道我们
24:13
挑选谁我们反对谁，但我我认为区别在于，越南没有
24:23
任何一种在南海的霸权行为都不与
24:28
佐久不与菲律宾争夺第二 托马斯沙不
24:34
威胁要进行某种形式的休闲聚会，并强制与
24:41
台湾，当然我提醒你，我们在台湾遇到了一点灰尘
24:47
最近印度和东北部地区的整个阿罗纳尔邦
24:54
中国声称他们在鞋子所在的地方有中文名称的地图
25:00
将会下降，所以这不仅仅是中国是一个很好的小独裁国家
25:06
一个想要与世界其他国家进行贸易的国家，在我看来，是什么扰乱了局势并使之变得如此
25:12
不仅对美国来说非常困难，对中国的自命不凡也是如此
25:18
以一种首先在亚洲，然后可能是全球愿望的方式实现复兴
25:25
其他地方我们不知道，所以我想你知道这是一个比中国复杂得多的事情
25:31
恢复活力并恢复到一个伟大的地方，它正在伸手
25:37
我认为这些方式对东南亚来说非常令人不安，当我在新加坡时，令我震惊的是我
25:45
了解新加坡的情况，但实际上我的意思是我认为你们是新加坡人，我把你们当作一种
25:52
这个比喻对于很多东南亚人来说确实感受颇深
25:57
与美国人相处很舒服，实际上很多人都觉得
26:02
对中国感到不舒服，但你不想大声表达出来
26:07
因为你不想公平地搅局，我明白，但我会喜欢
26:13
听听你谈论我认为有些人所说的中国在亚洲的霸权主张
26:21
以及整个过程中的不稳定影响
26:26
地区
奥维尔·谢尔：
你认为中国正在犯与其他工业化国家一样的错误吗？
26:33
太快了，他们试图运用他们刚刚收到的力量太快了，嗯，那是怎么回事
26:41
从你的角度来看，东南亚对中国的一些行为感到不安
好吧，我可以向你保证
26:48
这是我研究地缘政治约 50 年后学到的一课
26:55
仁慈的大国的概念是一个矛盾修辞法，不存在“仁慈的大国”这样的东西
27:01
仁慈的大国，所有大国无一例外，这只是
27:07
真正的4000年来都会追求自己的利益，我们把它你知道在你身上
27:13
知道在地缘政治中他们是价格制定者和价格接受者，所以美国
27:19
今天的中国是价格制定者，我们是价格行情制定者，如果我们有任何形式的话
27:27
幻想有一个仁慈可爱的伟大力量，他们会照顾你并牺牲自己的利益
27:34
你遇到了麻烦，所以你陷入了地缘政治，这是一个非常残酷的游戏，
27:39
不了解地缘政治的国家就会陷入冲突并陷入困境
27:47
问题，在这里我想补充一个非常重要的观点，因为我认为对于一些
27:53
呃 orille 你对东南亚国家不公平
27:59
到最后 6.6 亿人生活在东南亚，大约是这一数字的两倍
28:05
美利坚合众国和世界该地区的人口 I
28:10
想要强调的是地球 660 个区域中最多样化的区域
28:17
百万人口 2.5 亿是穆斯林 150
28:22
百万是基督徒 1.5 亿是佛教 大乘佛教 H 佛教道教迷惑者
28:28
印度教徒，正如我告诉过你的，如果地球上有一个地区的话，我们在东南亚也有很多共产党人
28:35
地球注定会发生战争和冲突，英国人将其描述为东南部的亚洲巴尔干地区
28:43
亚洲现在你可以问自己一个简单的问题为什么没有重大的
28:51
东南亚战争从79年至今已有44年45年
28:58
东南亚有一位隐藏的天才
29:05
阿桑，我们知道如何管理地缘政治，我们知道如何调整适应
29:13
保持灵活性，我们知道如何保持良好的关系
与美国，我们做的时候
29:20
拜登总统邀请了 10 位亚洲领导人，他们来得正是时候
29:27
她总统邀请了他们去的10位亚洲领导人，而澳大利亚总理阿尔贝里则邀请了10位阿桑
29:34
领导者他们会去，所以如果你想学习，如果你想进入一个世界
29:40
不同的文化和文明希望学习如何彼此和平相处并能够共同生活
29:46
彼此和平 来牙山 来东南亚 请不要
29:53
居高临下地对待这个地区这个地区
29:58
取得了一些非凡的成就，全世界都可以从中吸取教训，第一课就是向我们学习
30:07
如何避免
30:14
战争呃
奥维尔·谢尔：
首先我想说的是我我我同意你的观点我们居高临下
30:21
对任何人都不是一个有用的政策，而且我我不，我不想
30:28
认为我们对东南亚居高临下，我认为实际上与我们试图做的恰恰相反
30:35
认识到东南亚国家正如我所说，陷入了困境
30:40
中间，我认为我们理解这一点，我认为这不是美国政府推动的目标
30:47
人们，但这仍然没有回答我关于中国的问题
30:53
中国境内外的假象以及您如何解读这些假象
31:00
当中间立场缩小时，你认为答案是什么
31:06
韩国人在萨德导弹危机发生后受到惩罚，问问你认识的日本人问问
31:14
印第安人 我的意思是你已经看到了这个你知道这个所以什么是我们应该怎么做
31:21
回应这个呃中国不只是另一个常态
31:27
呃准民主试图在世界上找到自己的出路并恢复活力和
31:34
重新获得大国地位，这是一种特殊的政治
31:40
具有政治特殊世界观的结构，我想知道你认为对中国的正确反应是什么
31:47
就让它单独拉回第七舰队算了
31:54
台湾忘记南海忘记佐久忘记菲律宾阻止澳大利亚
32:00
停止四轮驱动，你认为这是正确的反应还是你的反应是什么？
32:08
补救U
基肖尔·马凯硕：
罗里，这变得非常有趣，我保证我非常非常
32:14
很高兴回答问题，但我我要泄露一个大秘密了呃
32:21
中国就像任何其他国家一样，是一个不完美的国家，它使得
32:28
错误，我知道，但据我所知，所有国家都会犯错误，中国确实犯了错误
32:36
与多个国家存在双边问题，这实际上是毫无疑问的
32:42
无论如何，你是对的，你的清单与日本和南方是对的
32:48
韩国，呃，菲律宾，澳大利亚，还有印度
32:55
是的，呃，这是大约五六个国家的名单，我想记得在
33:01
世界上有 193 个国家是对的
33:08
大多数国家与其他一些国家存在问题 美国与一些国家存在问题
33:14
是俄罗斯还是伊朗还是朝鲜还是中国所以这就是
33:20
正常，你知道，对于每个国家，你给我一个清单，我可以告诉你哪个是哪个双边
33:27
那个国家有希腊和土耳其的困难，如果你想要印度和巴基斯坦，如果
33:32
你想要所以有困难 双边困难是正常的
33:41
世界现状是正确的，所以事实并非如此
33:46
令人惊讶的是，中国有时会处理双边困难
33:53
好吧，有时它管理得很糟糕，所有国家都管理它们呃
34:00
嗯，我认为就华南地区而言肯定如此
34:05
海 呃它犯了错误 呃它已经太远了
34:12
自信，我认为中国人犯的最大错误是
34:18
创建这九条虚线和九条虚线我不知道你们是否都
34:23
知道这一点，中国在南海建立了一条假想的线，这是没有根据的
34:30
如果中国确实主张所有权利的话，现在就遵守国际法
34:38
N n-h 线内的水域如某些人声称的那样为领水
34:43
中国正在做的事情那么中国不应该允许任何国际航运通过南中国海，但我可以向你保证
34:52
昨天、今天、明天都有船舶经过南海Reg
34:58
定期未经中国许可，即使他们经过 n-h 线沃特斯，所以 n-h 线
35:05
显然，中国犯了一个巨大的错误，但当你谈论南海时，有必要强调一下
35:13
中国与四个阿桑邦的争端不是争端
35:19
你知道美国，如果你看一下，呃，以一种方式看四个阿桑州，或者
35:27
另一个他们一直在努力管理它，无论是越南、马来西亚、文莱还是
35:33
呃菲律宾现在现在你们都专注于当前的困难关系到
35:38
菲律宾正在与美国进行呃，但你知道你知道的
35:43
菲律宾选出一位倾向中国的总统格洛尔·马克·帕瓦·阿罗
35:50
然后选举另一位总统 Akino 移居美国，然后是 elac
35:55
Duete 前往中国，然后 elex maros 前往曼联
36:00
各州你可以预测接下来会发生什么，所以你知道所以这很重要
36:07
强调不要拍快照，重要的是要看到
36:12
长期前景和最终如果
36:17
华南东南部真的很危险，你应该看到呃战争
36:24
或或或或或你知道枪战等等，但到目前为止你知道
36:29
每个人都非常克制，但我可以告诉你，东南亚都知道
36:35
很好，当中国作为一个大国回归时，它将
36:44
我们必须做出战略调整 你知道这是一回事
36:50
住在老鼠隔壁还好，但当老鼠变成一只老鼠时
36:56
大象，你担心大象翻倒，你如何处理，我
37:04
可以告诉你，东南亚国家在这方面有着悠久的智慧。
37:10
如何管理中国和你知道的一个非常了解中国的国家是越南 越南一直是一个
37:18
与中国相邻2000年，被中国占领仅1000年
37:24
多年来，你知道你知道越南人怎么说越南人说要成为
37:30
越南领导人你必须能够对抗
37:36
中国和你必须能够和中国相处，如果你不能两者兼得，你就不能
37:43
成为越南的领导人，这是古老的智慧，所以我可以向你保证，我们
37:50
不只是变成傻瓜然后翻身说好吧做你想做的事
37:55
想要中国 不不我们没那么蠢好吧我们有自己的方式方法
38:04
坦率地说，如果你看看像印度尼西亚这样的大国，也意味着有 2.6 亿人口
38:12
对了 印尼和中国相处得怎么样 印尼顺便说一下还是不错的
38:20
美国的朋友想成为美国的好朋友，也是
38:26
管理中国，你想问你是否想观察微妙和
38:32
复杂性 仔细观察印度尼西亚人的所作所为，然后你
38:39
了解亚洲人的水平
38:45
你永远不会看到的复杂性和微妙性，但它是真实的，它有效，而且它
38:54
阻止战争奥维尔我想回到你身边试图得到我原来的答案
39:02
问题 Al 这是一个令人着迷的 Back in Forth 我真的很欣赏你的观点，嗯让我用一个
39:08
尝试以稍微不同的方式来引起你的回应 美国在世界上想要和需要什么样的中国
39:15
为了对抗中国并与中国相处
39:20
中国当然好美国也是一个非常善变且不可预测的国家
39:26
我们很容易认为它应该采取行动
39:31
理性地，也许有时会理性地行动，但事实并非如此，我想你知道理想的世界是矛盾的
39:39
非常悲惨的是，我们所拥有的世界是订婚，我认为这是一个
39:45
亨利·基辛格是绝对正确的，他按下了开关，但他没有调用它
39:51
订婚 当时我们还不知道订婚，但后来就变成了订婚
39:56
订婚的初衷是让我们或多或少地接受彼此
Host:
good evening everyone and welcome I'm so delighted to be here tonight to moderate
0:06
what we are sure will be a lively discussion on us China rivalry the future of the and the future of the
0:12
global order um as H noted I'm RI Daniels I'm the managing director of the Asia Society policy Institute and before
0:20
I turn the conversation over to both Kore and Orville for some thoughts
0:25
initial thoughts on us China competition I do want to talk a little bit about about where we are right now so over the
0:33
last let's say 25 years there have been so many changes in this us China
0:39
relationship in part because these countries have changed so much over 25
0:44
years um with China's entry into the wut with the process of globalization
0:51
kind of turning forward much more speedily from that engine um there's
0:56
really been a a a shift in the balance of power in Asia and there have also
1:04
been numerous kind of new opportunities and challenges created by that process
1:10
of in economic integration but also the technological Revolution that we're all
1:15
experiencing they really changeed the way these two countries see each other um and see their place in the world so
1:22
we're in a period now where the US China relationship has gone from being on
1:28
relatively Cooperative footing um under the George Bush 2
1:33
Administration under the Obama administration's process of diplomacy the Strategic and economic dialogue to
1:40
really facing a new set of um irritants and challenges in the bilateral
1:47
relationship um some of those challenges have to do with you know China's shifting system as China kind of goes up
1:54
the economic value chains and starts to prioritize things above um wholesale
1:59
economic growth some of those shifts have to do with us reactions to globalization and the the blame that has
2:06
been put on China rightly or wrongly for um its role in you know perhaps eroding
2:13
us competitiveness economic competitiveness in the world um but
2:18
either way you know however you look at the situation there's no doubt that the relationship is now seen as one not of
2:27
Cooperative coexistence or diplomacy first but really a strategic competition
2:33
and in some cases strategic rivalry so with that backdrop in mind I
2:39
want to start with Kure and then turn to Orville for some opening remarks um what
2:44
from your perspective are the US and China competing over and why what kind of end
2:52
state do you think that these two countries hope to achieve in terms of their role in the world but also their
2:58
relationship with each other so over to you
Kishore Mahbubani:
thank you Rory first let me Begin
3:03
by thanking hammed and you for welcoming me back uh to the Asia Society I do feel
3:09
like this is almost my second home because I first came to the Asia Society in 1984 40 years ago when I was first
3:17
appointed Singapore's ambassador to the UN and I used to come here all the time so to come back here is like coming back
3:23
home and I'm also very happy to be a Perry wellhouse fellow uh representing
3:29
upen also at this uh discussion so um to
3:34
answer your question Rory uh I think before you can answer the specific question about the direction of us China
3:42
relations it's important to emphasize that we are dealing with it
3:47
within a very very different Global context and we have to understand this
3:53
difficult different Glo Global context if you're going to understand the Dynamics that are also driving the US
3:59
China uh relationship and there are at least three fundamental ways in which the world has changed uh now firstly to
4:08
put it very bluntly the 21st century where most of the US China competition will take place will be the Asian
4:14
Century now what do I mean when I say it's going to be the Asian Century it means that the shift of economic power
4:20
is going to move to Asia the the largest economies will be in Asia and just to
4:26
illustrate that point uh in the 1960s not so long ago out of the top five
4:33
economies zero were Asian zero today three are the top five are
4:40
Asian and and that future growth as you know is going to come from Asia so
4:45
that's one big shift uh that is happening the secondly on the geopolitical front clearly we are moving
4:52
from a unipolar world to at least a bipolar world and I like to say that
4:58
it's actually a bipolar world in a multi-polar sea because lots of new other other new powers are emerging
5:04
becoming more exertive and so the unipolar moment that the United States enjoyed at the end of the Cold War is
5:12
gone but many people haven't adjusted to the fact that it is gone and that you
5:20
now have to live in a world where you have to contend with pure powers and other significant Powers who not
5:27
necessarily going to bend to the wishes of of the great Powers so easily so it's a much more complex world that we have
5:34
to deal with and thirdly and equally important point in the cultural
5:40
Dimension too we are seeing some fundamental shifts that are happening where we've had a world in a sense that
5:46
has been dominated by one civilization Western Civilization for the past 200
5:51
years and western states as you know colonized the whole 100 years ago if you were sitting here in in 19 uh 24 the
6:00
West ran the whole world effortlessly right now you have a
6:08
multi-valve been Domin are reemerging and coming back in strength so even on
6:14
the cultural front it's a different world So within this larger Global context we also seeing the US China
6:21
contest so why is it happening the reason quite simply is that the United
6:27
States is doing what what exactly any number one power would do when it sees
6:34
the emergence of a competitor it makes sure that the competitor doesn't overtake it so it is pushing it down
6:41
that's what all great Powers have done so what the US is doing is not
6:46
surprising it's predictable and if you put X or Y that's exactly what would
6:52
happen because the US has been used to be number one it doesn't want to see this place to another power but at the
6:58
same time while this is predictable and expected
7:04
what is not clear to the rest of the world that is obviously watching this contest and is very worried about this
7:10
contest what exactly are the main strategic goals of the United States in
7:18
this contest you know and this frankly as I say in my book has China One that
7:24
Insight I got from Henry Kissinger in a one-on-one conversation when I was writing my book as China won and hit to
7:31
some extent you alluded to it in your remarks too so for example is it the goal of the United States to stop the
7:38
economic growth of China maybe that's why you have trade tariffs chips sanctions and so on so forth is that the
7:46
goal can't be done or is it the goal to overthrow the Chinese Communist
7:55
party again I'll explain later can be
8:00
done or is it the goal to do what United States did with the Soviet Union contain
8:07
it effectively leave it confined to a small universe and have it disengaged
8:13
from the rest of the world again as I'll explain later it can't be done so then at the end of the
8:20
day what the world is asking is what exactly does the United States want to
8:26
accomplish in this contest and what will be the end game
Host:
okay fantastic well you've already put a lot on the table for us to come back and discuss including um fundamental changes
8:39
the the rise of a multi-polar system the economic power and dynamism of Asia um
8:45
new cultures which I think is a really interesting point we should Circle back to but also raised a lot of questions
8:51
about us strategic goals so orille could you give us your perspective what are
8:57
the US and China competing over and why you know what does the US hope to achieve with this and what is the end
9:03
state that we're looking for
Orville Schell:
well it's always a great pleasure to
9:08
talk with Kore because it immediately makes me think in ways that I don't
9:14
normally have to think um the first thought that occurs to me uh after
9:20
hearing your remarks is this you ask what's the United States new strategy uh
9:28
post 1972 I guess we could call an engagement I would like to ask you what do you
9:35
think China's strategy is what are they after because actually this is a a dance
9:42
between two partners it isn't just up to the United States as I'm sure you would agree so what do you think China is
9:49
after and if I may ask you a question what power with great power
9:56
pretentions adopts wolf Warrior diplomacy antagonizes I mean who
10:02
antagonizes Canada Sweden Norway Australia India I
10:10
mean I could go on and why what's going on here how is that in
10:16
the advantage of anybody much less
10:23
China
Kishore Mahbubani:
I I I I I I I was looking forward to the opening remarks of
10:30
oh for forgive me I thought you would have some seven minutes of prepared
10:35
remark give me some to think but I I'm very I'm very happy o to answer uh your
10:41
question and if you don't mind again forgive me for doing this uh when you
10:47
talk about our world and and how the world sees especially uh what China's
10:55
goals and strategies are I I want you to bear in mind a very important
11:00
statistic which is that 12% of the world's population lives in the west and
11:06
88% of the world's population lives outside the west and let me make one point very
11:13
clearly and very boldly at the very beginning how the 12% views China is not
11:21
how the 88% views China and so for example uh when you ask about what is
11:28
China trying to ACC Lish and if you want to sort of if I can share with you what I pick up from my conversations with my
11:35
fellow Asians with Africans with Latin Americans they see that China is trying
11:43
to come back once again as a strong
11:48
civilization which it once used to be and you know China is he knows better
11:54
than I do he's the China expert I'm by the way I'm not a China expert let me emphasize that one time immediately I
12:01
I'm a China Observer uh and of course we have to be China observers because in Southeast
12:07
Asia as you all know geographically the power that is going to have the greatest impact on us clearly is China just sheer
12:14
proximity just as Latin America will live in the shadow of the United States of America southeast Asia has to live in
12:21
the shadow actually of China and India and myself so emphasize so our
12:26
perspective and that of other Africans is that we've seen this civilization for 4,000 years go up go down go up go down
12:35
and so the return of China is just part of a long 4,000 year history of dynastic
12:42
cycles and when the Chinese civilization goes down can go down very very badly
12:47
and I think oille knows better than any of us that they went through the one of the worst centuries the century of
12:53
humiliation from 1842 to 1949 but it's not normal for the Chinese civilization
12:59
to underperform for so long it's much more normal for them to come back after a while so what we see therefore from
13:06
let's say from sais Asia is a return of a civilization that we have seen for centuries go up and down so this is a
13:13
natural return now so when China tries to claim a place in the world as one of
13:18
the great Powers is a perfectly natural development now you you mentioned things
13:24
uh you use words like wolf Warrior diplomacy and what's interesting is that
13:30
while the term wolf Warrior diplomacy is so frequently used in the Anglo-Saxon
13:35
media and as you know the Anglo-Saxon media let's be very blunt about this has a very jaundice view of China and the
13:41
rest of the World discounts what the uh uh uh Anglo-Saxon media says about China
13:48
what the rest of the world does is to look at what China does and then deal
13:54
with it and at the end of the day you you will notice that countries have a
14:02
choice do they want to trade with China or do they not want to trade with
14:09
China and if you look at the Deeds China today does far more trade with the rest
14:15
of the world than the United States does by the way we do want to have trade with United States too but trade as you know
14:22
is a voluntary activity but it benefits the countries that do it so you take a country like Brazil which is much much
14:29
closer to the United States than it is to China 20 years ago it took
14:34
Brazil one year to export $1 billion to China today it takes
14:41
Brazil 60 hours to export 1 billion dollars to China so why shouldn't Brazil
14:49
have a normal trading relationship with China so you can see therefore the point
14:54
I'm trying to suggest to you is that if you look at many of the countries in the global South not all at many of the
15:01
countries in the global South they're very happy to have normal relations with China and they have no difficulties the
15:08
difficulties have come as I said primarily betweenin the United
15:13
States and China for understandable reasons this is nor this is what would
15:19
happen when you have a great power shifts and I actually think that in some
15:24
ways just as what the United States did towards China was predictable China responses towards the United States are
15:31
also predictable
Host:
of course we live in a really interconnected world now correct
15:38
right where the kind of this narrative about the the rise and fall of great
15:44
Powers ends up reverberating in different ways countries are very happy to trade with China and I will turn to
15:50
Orville in a minute for his thoughts on you know how the US sees China's Behavior but I from my perspective do
15:56
not think that the US um wants to hurt hamper harm China's legitimate trade
16:03
with the world but at the same time the countries are trading more with China they're also seeking greater and greater
16:09
security assistance from the US Orville could you break this down a little bit what are some of the concerns about
16:16
China's Behavior as it rises that are causing this kind of demand signal for
16:22
more us Western attention um perhaps including some of the economic coion
16:27
activities as you mentioned with can Canada and how do you see that in terms of um China's rise in this system and
16:37
its potential effects on global development moving forward
Orville Schell:
I think you know
16:45
um Kure I agree with you that uh yes China has every right to be a great
16:51
power and actually they've accomplished an amazing developmental uh uh success
16:57
story and I understand great Powers never like to be deposed and replaced by
17:03
others but I think in your argument and what I'd like to ask you about is China
17:10
is not just another great power it is a Marxist leninist regime that under xiin
17:17
ping has become very very different than we experienced in the 80s even in the 90s after the 1989 uh Beijing Massacre
17:25
and demonstrations and I think that without factoring that element into the
17:32
equation we can't just blly say China wants to be a great power wants to trade
17:38
with everybody everybody wants to trade with it because there is another element in the equation namely what China is after as a
17:47
new kind of techno autocracy in the world and whether other countries feel
17:53
comfortable with that now we were talking upstairs a bit about the Philippines I watch the Philippines
18:00
extremely carefully because I see that as a kind of a RoR scale I mean
18:05
southeast Asia fair enough Singapore caught in the middle doesn't want to have to choose Malaysia I get it but uh
18:15
I think we may be approaching a point where it's going to be at least more difficult if not impossible to stand in
18:22
the middle and I think we see in the Philippines flickers of that recognition
18:27
now admitt the world is always in flux so I'm curious to know how you view the
18:34
internal political shift in China where it is returning to a much more uh sort
18:41
of maest mode not completely so and how other countries the Comfort levels they
18:47
feel about accepting China's hegemony in Asia if not in the world uh are you
18:53
comfortable with this I mean Singapore is a small little country how do you
18:59
feel about that yes you want to keep trading but there are other factors here I think you have to take into
19:07
consideration well
Kishore Mahbubani:
first of all let me uh if you don't mind quickly comment on the point you raised
19:12
Rory uh when you mentioned that uh countries are also moving closer to the United States uh you're absolutely right
19:20
uh I want to emphasize also to avoid any misunder understanding that there are huge reservoirs of Goodwill globally
19:26
towards the United States and and the world is actually quite happy to see a strong United States and a strong China
19:33
and to some extent if they balance each other that's not too bad uh for the World At Large so it's not as though the
19:39
world is rushing to embrace China and saying goodbye America that's not the world the world actually most countries
19:45
in the world as you yourself said oille want to have good ties with with both United States and China uh now in your
19:53
in your point about uh the internal uh political
19:59
makeup of China and isn't China becoming more Marxist leninist or communist and
20:05
are we worried about that and I think here I want to emphasize that there is
20:10
only one country in the world uh that passes judgments on the internal
20:16
political systems of other country it's a very exceptional country and I think you all know of
20:23
American exceptionalism I can tell you that you know the UN is not too far away from here it's a mile or two away if you
20:31
walk into the United Nations you will find that one of the most uh sacred
20:37
principles of the UN Charter uh which is actually uh held to very strongly by
20:45
member states of the UN is that we will not interfere in each other's Internal
20:51
Affairs that's enshrined in the UN Charter and that principle is used by
20:56
Most states when they deal with each other so attitude of most states in the world is you choose your form of
21:02
government no matter what you choose we will deal with the government uh in
21:07
power and so whether China is more Marxist or less Marxist or Democratic or
21:13
undemocratic we can get we cannot get to choose it's up to the Chinese at the end of day choose what kind of government
21:19
that they have but I do think also if if I can or will push a little bit bit uh
21:25
back at you you know when United States first fell in
21:34
love with China in 1971 can I ask you who was the leader of
21:44
China at that point was it maong would you call maong a great
21:52
defender of Human Rights would you say that he is this is
21:58
the man with a liberal mind a liberal Spirit someone you can you know develop
22:05
a kinship with you know what I'm getting at right so when it comes to
22:12
geopolitics it's a very cruel business ideology can be put aside when
22:21
necessary can be brought to the for when necessary and even today if you say
22:29
that the United States will stand up and stand up the Communist party's
22:36
regimes why are you cultivating Vietnam what's the
22:43
difference I mean is isn't doesn't Vietnam also have a Communist party in power so I'm only saying this because
22:52
the rest of the world when I say that the rest of the world has changed they've become much
22:59
more sophisticated they see through all this they see that yes there's a serious
23:05
geopolitical contest going on between United States and China they are very
23:10
worried about it they want to maintain good ties with both and they won't pass judgment and it's not just to be fair or
23:18
it's not just Singapore I can I can give you if you want a list of 100 countries
23:23
I can give you a list of 100 countries that are in that position
Host:
can we talk a little bit about
23:30
how countries are approaching this um desire not to make a choice like what
23:36
are the factors orille from your perspective that are narrowing country's options down into making a choice
23:42
between the US and China when it's clear that most countries don't want to choose
23:48
or want to be able to maybe choose both um but also that it benefits both the US
23:54
China and the world for there to be that type of Cooperative tissue what are some of the major
23:59
irritant
Orville Schell:
well before I get to the irritant let me just say k sure that nine US Presidential administrations
24:08
wholeheartedly supported engagement and I take your point that you know we we
24:13
pick and choose who who who we oppose and and but I I I think the the difference is that uh Vietnam is not has
24:23
no sort of hegemonic pretenses in the South China Sea is not in conflict with
24:28
the Saku is not competing with the Philippines for second Thomas sha is not
24:34
threatening to to have some sort of a a Rec reunion with a forced reunion with
24:41
Taiwan and and of course I remind you that uh we've had a little dust up in
24:47
India of late and the entire aronal Pradesh in the Northeast territories is
24:54
claimed by China they have maps with Chinese name on places that shoe is
25:00
going to drop so it isn't that just China's a a nice little authoritarian
25:06
country wanting to trade with the rest of the world it seems to me that what is agitating the situation and making it
25:12
very difficult not just for the United States but is China's pretentions to
25:18
rejuvenate in a way that has Global aspirations first in Asia and possibly
25:25
elsewhere we don't know so I think that you know this is a very much more complicated thing than just China
25:31
rejuvenating and restoring itself to a place of greatness it is reaching out in
25:37
ways which I think are very unsettling for Southeast Asia and when I'm in Singapore the thing that stuns me is I
25:45
understand Singapore's situation but actually I mean I think you singaporeans and I use you as a kind
25:52
of a metaphor for many people in Southeast Asia do feel rather profoundly
25:57
comfortable with American an and actually many people feel rather
26:02
uncomfortable with China but it is the you don't want to express it too loudly
26:07
because you don't want to rock the boat fair enough I get it but I I would love
26:13
to hear you address what I think some would call China's hegemonic pretentions in Asia
26:21
and the destabilizing effect of that throughout the entire
26:26
region
Orville Schell:
do you think China is making the same mistakes that other industrialized countries are making that they expand
26:33
too far too fast that they try to wield the power that they've just received too quickly and how does um how does that
26:41
uncomfortableness in Southeast Asia with some of China's Behavior play out from your perspective
well I can assure you
26:48
that um one lesson I learned after studying geopolitics for about 50 years
26:55
is that the concept of a benevolent great power is is an oxymoron there's no such thing as the
27:01
benevolent great power all great powers without exception and this has only been
27:07
true for 4,000 years will pursue their own interests and we take it you know in you
27:13
know in geopolitics they are price makers and price takers so United States
27:19
and China today are price makers we are price tickers and if we have any kind of
27:27
Illusion that there's a nice benevolent cuddly great power they will look after you and sacrifice his own interest then
27:34
you're in trouble so you in geopolitics which is the very cruel game and the
27:39
countries that don't understand geopolitics are the one that get sucked into conflict and get sucked into
27:47
problems and here I want to add a very important point because I think to some
27:53
extent uh orille you being unfair to the soueast Asian States there are at the
27:59
end of the day 660 million people living in Southeast Asia that's about double
28:05
the population of United States of America and this region of the world I
28:10
want to emphasize is the most diverse region of planet Earth out of 660
28:17
million people 250 million are Muslims 150
28:22
million are Christian 150 million are Buddhist Mahayana Buddhist H Buddhist taist confusionists
28:28
Hindus and as I told you we have lots of Communists also in Southeast Asia if there was one region on planet
28:35
Earth that should be destined for war and conflict and the British describe it as the Balkans of Asia that was soueast
28:43
Asia now can you please ask yourself a simple question why have there been no major
28:51
Wars in Southeast Asia since 79 that's 44 45 years
28:58
there is a hidden genius in Southeast Asia in
29:05
asan we know how to manage geopolitics we know how to adjust adapt
29:13
be flexible we know how to maintain good ties with United States and we do when
29:20
President Biden invites the 10 assian leaders they come right and when
29:27
President she invites the 10 Asian leaders they go and when Prime Minister alberi of Australia invites 10 asan
29:34
leaders they go so if you want to learn if you want to enter a world in which
29:40
different cultures and civilizations want to learn how to live in peace with each other and can live in
29:46
peace with each other come to asan come to Southeast Asia please don't
29:53
be condescending towards this region this region
29:58
has accomplished some remarkable things that the whole world can take lessons from and lesson number one learn from us
30:07
how to avoid
30:14
Wars uh
Orville Schell:
first of all I would say that I I I agree with you we condescension
30:21
towards anyone is not a a helpful policy and and and I I don't I don't want to
30:28
think that we are condescending towards southeast Asia and I think actually quite the contrary that we try to do
30:35
recognize that that Southeast Asian countries are as I said stuck in the
30:40
middle and and I think we understand that and it's not I think the goal of the United States government to push
30:47
people but that still doesn't answer my question of China's
30:53
pretentions both within China and outside of China and how you read those
31:00
and what you think the answer is as the middle ground shrinks and ask the
31:06
Koreans after what happened with the Thad Missile Crisis and they got punished ask the Japanese you know ask
31:14
the Indians I mean you've seen this you know this so what is h how should we
31:21
respond to this uh China is not just another normal
31:27
uh quazi democracy trying to find its way in the world and to rejuvenate and and
31:34
reattain great power status it is a particular kind of a a political
31:40
structure with a pol particular kind of world view and I wonder you know what you think the proper response to China
31:47
is just let it alone pull back the seventh fleet forget
31:54
Taiwan forget the South China Sea forget the Saku forget Philippines stop Aus
32:00
stop the quad do you think that's the proper response or what's your
32:08
remedy U
Kishore Mahbubani:
Rory this is getting very interesting I promise a li I'm very I'm
32:14
very happy to answer the questions but I I I'm going to give away a big secret uh
32:21
China is like any other country an imperfect country uh it makes
32:28
mistakes and I know but as far as I know all countries make mistakes and it is true that China has
32:36
had bilateral problems with several countries there's actually no question
32:42
whatsoever and you're right you have the list right with Japan with South
32:48
Korea uh with Philippines with Australia and also with India you're
32:55
right uh that's a list of about five or six countries I think remember at the
33:01
end of the day there are 193 countries in the world right and
33:08
most countries have problems with some other countries United States has problems with some countries whether
33:14
it's Russia whether it's Iran whether it's North Korea China so it's this is
33:20
normal and you know for every country you give me a list mention I can tell you which which which bilateral
33:27
difficulties that country has Greece and Turkey if you want India and Pakistan if
33:32
you want so having difficulties having bilateral difficulties is by the way a normal
33:41
state of the world right so it is not
33:46
surprising that China has bilateral difficulties sometimes it manages them
33:53
well sometimes it manages them badly where all countries manag them uh
34:00
well I think um certainly in in the case of South China
34:05
Sea uh it has made mistakes uh it has been far too
34:12
assertive and I think the the biggest mistake the Chinese have made uh is in
34:18
creating this nine dash line and the nine dash line I don't know if you all
34:23
know this there a sort of a hypothetical line in the South China Sea that's been created by China has no basis in
34:30
international law right now if it is true that China claims all the
34:38
waters within the N n-h line as territorial Waters as some people claim
34:43
the China is doing then China shouldn't allow any international shipping through South China Sea but I can assure you
34:52
yesterday today and tomorrow ships are going through the South China Sea Reg
34:58
regularly without seeking permission of China even though they're going through the n-h line Waters so the n-h line
35:05
clearly is a huge mistake that China has made but when you talk about the South China Sea it's important to emphasize
35:13
that the dispute that China has is with four Assan States it's not a dispute as
35:19
you know with the United States and if you look at it uh look at the four Assan States in one way or
35:27
another they been trying to manage it whether it's Vietnam Malaysia brunai and
35:33
uh Philippines now right now you are all focused on the current difficulties that
35:38
Philippines is having uh with United States but you know you know oille that
35:43
Philippines elects one president glor Mak pava Aro that moves towards China
35:50
then it elects another president Akino who moves to United States and then elac
35:55
duete who moves towards China and then elex maros who moves towards United
36:00
States can you anticipate what's coming next okay so you know so it's important
36:07
to emphasize that don't take a snapshot it's important to see the
36:12
long-term picture and at the end of the day if
36:17
South China SE really is that dangerous you should be seeing uh Wars
36:24
or or or or you know gun battles and so on so forth but you know so far
36:29
everybody's been very restrained but I can tell you this southeast Asia knows
36:35
very well that when China comes back as a great power as it has and it is going to
36:44
be we have to make strategic adjustments you know is one thing to
36:50
live next door to a mouse fine but when the mouse becomes an
36:56
elephant you worry about the elephant rolling over and how do you manage that and I
37:04
can tell you that the Southeast Asian countries have had very long wisdom in
37:10
how to manage China and the one country oille as you know that knows China very well is Vietnam Vietnam has been a
37:18
neighbor of China for 2,000 years it was occupied by China only 1,000
37:24
years and and you know you know what the vietnames say the vietnames say that to become a
37:30
leader of Vietnam you must be able to stand up to
37:36
China and you must be able to get along with China if you cannot do both you cannot
37:43
be a leader of Vietnam that's old wisdom so I can assure you that we're
37:50
not just going to become suckers and roll over and say okay do whatever you
37:55
want China no no we not that stupid okay that we have our own ways and means and
38:04
frankly if you look at a large country like Indonesia also mean 260 million people
38:12
right how does Indonesia get along with China Indonesia by the way is a good
38:20
friend of United States wants to be a good friend of United States and is also
38:26
managing China and you want to ask if you want to watch subtlety and
38:32
complexity watch carefully what the Indonesians do then you
38:39
understand that the Asians have a level of
38:45
sophistication and subtlety that you will never see but it's real and it works and it
38:54
prevents Wars Orville I want to turn back to you to try to get an answer to my original
39:02
question Al this has been a fascinating Back in Forth I've really appreciated your views um let me ask it in a
39:08
slightly different way to try to elicit your response what kind of China does America want and need in the world in
39:15
order to stand up to China and get along with
39:20
China well of course America is also a very fickle country and unpredictable
39:26
country and and and it's easy for us to think that it it it should act
39:31
rationally and maybe does ACT rationally sometimes but it doesn't I think you know the ideal world was paradoxically
39:39
and quite tragically the world we had which was engagement it was a I think
39:45
Henry Kissinger was absolutely right he threw the switch and he didn't call it
39:51
engagement then we didn't know about engagement yet but it became that and
39:56
the conceit of engagement was let's accept each other more or less let's
40:02
trade let's exchange let's try to get along and slowly see if we can't get on
40:08
a more convergent pathway and I think you all know that uh
40:15
America actually this was I think a a really good example of American leadership and I will remind you after
40:23
the Beijing Massacre what did President Bush du who was at the initial uh you know before we
40:31
had an embassy he was in Beijing representing the United States he sent Brent skof to see dong sha ping secretly
40:38
didn't even tell Ambassador Jim Lily that they were going the transcript of
40:43
that meeting is very telling because what it shows us was skull Croft really
40:48
got berated by dun shaing who I actually I think is quite a hero I don't want to
40:54
malign him but only to say that dong saw the demonstrations as caused by the
41:00
United States and was very abusive to skoof who was saying please remember
41:06
President Bush thinks of China uh the China relationship is important wants to
41:12
continue it I I raise that only to say that I think the United States has gone
41:17
the distance to try to find a way to do exactly what you propos Kure which is to
41:25
accept maybe not completely but to get along work it out see if the
41:31
future can't hold a better future a more congruent future and I think what we see
41:37
if I may just quickly jump to the end here and then stop is that in a certain sense if I read this correctly I think
41:44
xiin ping has brought engagement to an end sadly and tragically both for us for
41:51
you and for China and I ask you why how do you explain it
41:58
and that changes the game completely so what are you going to do about it what
42:03
am I going to do about it what are we going to do about what's the right response now that we don't have an
42:09
operating system for any kind of a a as Hamid said we're
42:17
compasses what's the answer you tell me could you actually talk to us a
42:23
little bit about where you think the US China relationship could more productively Go I mean I think Orville a
42:30
lot of the points that you've made and also Kure the points that you've made have really pointed to a very deep
42:36
strategic mistrust between the US and China don't trust each other's political systems China thinks the US is
42:43
fermenting color revolutions inside the PRC because of American democracy you
42:49
know the US thinks that um Chinese techno authoritarianism could spread throughout the world um we don't have
42:56
agreement on on what we are doing with regard to our Taiwan policy we're
43:02
definitely interpreting each other's actions as aggressive when we see our own as defensive so how do we manage
43:09
this strategic mistrust and maybe if we can throw in Orville's layer how do we do it in the XI Jin ping
43:15
era yeah great questions um strategic mistrust you're absolutely
43:23
right and I can tell you that this strategic mistrust between in United States and China worries the whole world
43:30
a great deal because at the end of the day no matter what you do the reality is that
43:39
China frankly has already emerged as a great power I I don't buy the the conventional
43:48
wisdom in the Anglo-Saxon media which is by the way always wrong on China in
43:55
1990 when the econom IST first predicted the coming collapse of the Chinese
44:01
economy in 1990 the Chinese GNP was $360
44:08
billion a few months ago The Economist again came out with a story saying
44:14
Chinese economy is going the Chinese economic growth is over but then it had grown to 18 trillion it had grown 50
44:22
times after 30 years of predictions of the coming collapse of China why do I emphasize that China's rise is
44:32
Unstoppable and it's not driven by you or by me is driven by 1.4 billion
44:38
Chinese people and I'm sure you read the column by Martin wolf in the financial times last week in which he said if 1.4
44:48
billion Chinese people decide to become
44:55
prosperous nothing can stop them and the Chinese
45:00
people have this great desire to do as well as the rest of the
45:07
world and so they have China by the way China's economy has serious serious
45:12
serious problems property bubble demographic challenges uh uh lack of
45:19
investor confidence these are all real issues but at the end of the day what we have learned is that if there's one set
45:26
of Poli makers that seem to know how to fix their problems gradually it is uh
45:32
China now if you want me to answer your question directly uh oille about uh
45:38
president xiin ping I want you to know that again I
45:43
want to go back to my point of 193 countries in the world almost no other country in the
45:52
world passes judgment on the quality
45:57
of the leader that they are dealing with they accept the fact that he's the
46:03
leader and we have to deal with him good bad friendly
46:09
unfriendly and frankly I want to tell you this if you
46:14
don't mind very directly if you did a poll of 193 leaders and asked
46:21
them in 2017 2018 would you would you rather deal
46:27
with President xiin ping or would you rather deal with President Donald
46:35
Trump but tell you 193 countries would vote in favor sh Ming I'm
46:42
serious so when you emphasize that oh it's a
46:48
leader that's a problem it's not the problem you have to deal with a
46:54
country and I can tell you is you know since I've spoken to many people in especially in third world countries who
47:01
have dealt with President XI they don't share your vision of President she they see him as a
47:10
sane sober rational
47:16
predictable leader who is advancing China's
47:21
interests quite effectively I mean at the end of the day
47:27
you look at where China was when he took power 2014 where China is
47:33
2024 it has come a long way so we
47:38
whatever we do we don't underestimate him or China by the way we also don't
47:45
underestimate United States I want to assure you that the respect for United
47:51
States is deep and profound and very strong but in the same way there's also
47:59
the same deep profound respect for China and we know we have to deal with these
48:04
two great powers and actually we believe that the United States would be better
48:10
off now don't call it engagement don't call it containment just deal with the
48:18
reality the reality is that there is a strong great power like China and you
48:25
have to live with it and then figure out what's the best way of living with it in
48:30
a way that enhances America's national interest and I would say for America to
48:37
defend its National interest is perfectly legitimate perfectly legitimate but in
48:44
many ways the world would be happier that if given the all the extra
48:50
extraodinary challenges you're facing for example in climate change you know you're the expert on climate
48:55
change the the most sensible thing Humanity could do is to tell United States and
49:02
China please we have a bigger problem coming if we burn out planet Earth we
49:08
have nothing left to live on we're destroying the only ship we have why don't we press the pause button on this
49:14
geopolitical contest frankly is less important than the global challenges we face so if you ask me what the rest of
49:21
the world thinks they actually hope that the United States and China could find
49:27
ways and means of dealing with their differences in such a way that it doesn't destabilize the rest of the
49:34
world and allows us to focus on what's really important that's coming in the
49:39
future we need to turn to your audience and get them involved in the questions
49:45
but from my perspective I think that is what reasonable people in the US
49:50
government are trying to do with the strategy of strategic competition the question I think that um raised at the
49:57
beginning is instructive do we have the Strategic Vision to carry forward our national interests the defense of our
50:04
national interest in a rational way that does not make the problem worse um please the audience throw us your
50:11
questions you can raise your hand I see one hand right here a mic will come to you shortly and
50:18
we'll take your questions thank you so much for the
50:24
great talk and good to see you again per first so uh I have two questions actually the first one is a little bit more specific
50:32
I remember uh Ambassador meani criticized China's reactions in South chinae SE decades ago including the
50:37
night Dash lines so how would you assess his recent approach to the Taiwan Street including what happened couple days ago
50:44
the new fishbo incident and it's being in the country criticized it's being not aggressive so do you think they learned
50:49
a lesson from the past and become more moderate these days but they also exert more military controlling areas that
50:55
used to be co- patroled and the second question is you talk about the different leaders so um forget
51:02
about a longstanding regime possibly in China what if Trump comes back this year couple years ago you critic that uh you
51:09
had an article saying that Trump helped China to gain International reputation
51:14
during his uh during his presidency so what if it comes back in the end of this year how do you think this going to
51:20
affect the bilateral relationship thank you I'd like to give you both a chance to answer those two questions so we'll
51:25
start with you sure okay the first question was on Taiwan second question what happens if Trump comes back okay
51:33
now by the way I think we all know I think aille would agree that by far the most dangerous um issue in the US China
51:41
bilateral relationship is Taiwan if there's one thing that could cause a war
51:46
between United States and China it is Taiwan and I think you all know that
51:52
from the Chinese point of view Taiwan is the last living symbol of the century of humiliation because Taiwan as you
51:59
know was first separated from China after China lost the Sino Japanese war in 1895 so not bringing Taiwan back is
52:07
seem like a a sort of a continuing wound in Chinese civilization that has to be
52:12
fixed but at the same time to prevent War the best thing we can do is to keep
52:18
the status quo as it is and not change it in any way and so those who want to
52:23
preserve peace in Taiwan Straits keep keep the status quo and some of it is
52:29
fictional of course the fiction is that the Republic of China represents all of China but that's a fiction that's
52:35
actually very important for peace the minute you drop that you create War now
52:40
at the same time I think we must all understand and respect the desire of the
52:46
people of Taiwan to keep their Lifestyles as it is they don't want to change they don't want to join uh
52:51
mainland China that's understandable but if you want to find a solution
52:58
that accommodates both the desire of the Taiwanese people to keep their the way
53:04
of life they're used to without any change whatsoever without any fear without any difficult and to also
53:11
prevent a war it can be done but the question is do you want to
53:16
see peace across Taiwan streets or do you want to see a war so I'm hope and I
53:21
must say to be fair many US administrations have understood that very very well so when
53:28
President Chan of Tai Taiwan emerged as you know in around
53:35
2003 2004 it was President George W bush that made it very clear to president
53:40
chunri ban I will not allow you to have a referendum that was a very wise decision
53:46
made by the president of the United States so the US government understands
53:51
the sensitivity of this issue so that's got to be very carefully managed now in the case Cas so what happens when Trump
53:58
uh comes back uh I I think if if Trump comes back huh if Trump comes back oh
54:06
if we not please delete that from the
54:11
record no I'm sorry yeah no no by the way I let me okay let me be very blunt very direct the I would say most
54:18
countries in the world would be happy happier if President Joe Biden's elected let me be very clear about that uh I
54:25
mean president Joe Biden is a very predictable uh careful
54:31
sensitive uh president who as you know has has made many friends around the
54:37
world but president Donald Trump version two if he comes back will I think be a
54:45
much bigger challenge uh for the world much much bigger challenge for the world
54:53
and that's why actually in some
54:58
ways if the United States could focus a bit
55:04
more on his own internal challenges as I say in chapter 7 of my
55:10
book as China One if the United States could become less of a
55:16
plutocracy and create a society where the bottom 50% who have seen a stagnation in their
55:23
standard of living for 30 years if you can improve their standard of living give them a sense of hope then
55:31
they won't vote for Donald Trump so from the from the point of view of rest of the world we want to see a strong
55:40
vibrant United States where the people are happy and they elect a happy
55:48
president Orville thoughts on either well I I have nothing to say on Trump I
55:55
have no idea what he' do if he's president I mean it's catch as catch can it's it's and I agree with you K sure
56:01
the best thing we can do is straighten our own mess out and be better leaders in the world and and preserve our
56:07
democracy as to Taiwan I think my remedy for Taiwan is
56:12
exactly maidong and Dong XA pings As maong Told Winston who's here and
56:19
Kissinger and Nixon let it let it be for 100
56:24
Years Don't let don't worry about it when dun xaing stopped in Tokyo on his
56:30
way to Washington to uh to meet with Jimmy Carter and reestablished diplomatic relations he said he was
56:38
asked about this and he said leave it for future Generations smarter generations to deal with that's the
56:45
smart way but that's not xiin Ping's way so I think you know we know what
56:51
happened to Tong Kong it's pretty obvious you know the that that there
56:57
will be some movement toward Taiwan maybe not an amphibious assault or something like that but I wager there'll
57:03
be some pecking away at the edges which will be really challenging I would say finally Kure this you say let's just
57:11
Live and Let Live and get along with China and accept them good but sometimes uh I think you'd
57:20
have to agree with me history provides a lot of examples where that does not work
57:25
and I raised the question of the Ukraine here I mean sometimes countries irid
57:32
Dental with potions of irredentism they they act as Russia did in the Ukraine I
57:38
fear that could happen in some way in the Taiwan Straits or in the South China Sea or with the Saku and I think that's
57:46
it's it's a very foolish uh pretention that China has that this wound as you
57:52
describe it is so deep that they have to go up Poss possibly blowing up the whole
57:57
Asian economic miracle and they take down Singapore with them let's take a
58:02
few more questions grouped all together if we can I'm going to say one two three
58:08
we'll take all three questions while we're bringing the mic to the first person um on the Taiwan straight I think
58:14
it's really instructive to remember that though there was this fishing boat incident it did not escalate into a
58:20
crisis and there's probably very clever smart diplomacy between
58:26
um officials or with officials in taibe Beijing and Washington that made sure
58:33
that that incident was relatively well contained so a bright spot in an otherwise messy neighborhood right up
58:39
here uh thank you so much I'm curious to here are your thoughts on China's increasing military presence in West
58:45
Africa uh eatori Guinea and now potentially jibou as well I'm sorry could you repeat that China China's
58:52
increasing military presence in Africa China's increasing military presence in Africa thank you next
58:58
question where are we right here yeah hi so thank you both uh for
59:07
this really interesting talk uh but it seems like uh on the side of China we're spending a lot of time talking about
59:14
what feels like the China of 2009 when they were at their peak in terms of influence when comparatively uh their
59:22
system of state-backed capitalism looked much better uh than the of the West and
59:27
well don't fully agree that the United States is the only country in the world that judges the leadership of other
59:32
countries uh China was also very um judgment free this was the time of a lot of infrastructure
59:39
Investments um but I think that's not the China of today and especially after the pandemic uh I think there's a lot of
59:46
a lot more Eric leadership um and a lot less of this kind of rule by Council
59:51
first among equals that you saw before when China was more stable and so I think that fun Al question of the China
59:58
of today with Xi Jinping with a much more personalized leadership does seem more unstable does that not worry more
1:00:04
of these countries than that you know that list of who would choose between the United States and China I don't think that's an operation anymore is
1:00:10
that the question what is what are other countries in the world thinking about the stability of XI jinping's leadership
1:00:16
today yeah it's much different leadership in China than it was before the pandemic and since the financial
1:00:21
crisis okay we have time for one more question I apologize I know a lot of you have the in the area we should answer
1:00:27
them as they come up or we'll forget them I've got them military inter u Chinese military in West Africa chines
1:00:33
military in Africa has being changed after the pandemic can we just take the last question I'm the third I had my hand up
1:00:40
first I'm going to go thank you I'm deeply impacted by Orville's
1:00:46
brother's book The Gift of time in which he highlights Albert Einstein's uh admonition that the
1:00:52
nuclear bomb changed everything except our thinking and drift toward catastrophe and what he was talking
1:00:58
about was the West philan model of nation states playing with these devices
1:01:04
and putting the whole world at risk every day and I'm also deeply informed by facts realism we're destroying
1:01:12
species at over a thousand times The evolutionary base rate 60% of our oxygen
1:01:17
comes from the health of the pH of the oceans because phytoplankton gives us our oxygen we're destroying rainforests
1:01:25
faster than their being replenished and the list goes on of problems that cannot be solved in the westan model of
1:01:32
competition among states how do we bring realism planetary realism back to the
1:01:38
discussion as you highlighted in the whole range of problems that are not about identity not about civilization
1:01:46
but about the reality that we're facing today thank you okay I'm going to turn
1:01:51
to Orville first on these three questions Chinese military and West Africa let me
1:01:57
in my weak brain let me answer that first uh yes the great tragedy for me of
1:02:03
the end of Engagement is the planet is at risk because the United States and China cannot cooperate and we absolutely
1:02:10
must learn how to but uh I also call your attention to the fact that John
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ky's been working on this for decades and not gotten very far so it takes
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reciprocity to bring about resolution questions like climate change nuclear
1:02:28
weapons pandemics and that's exactly what's missing now if I read the Biden Administration correctly the door is
1:02:35
open but I'm not sure it's very open in Beijing to these questions and if it isn't open in both sides you don't have
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a partnership you don't have a dialogue you don't have effective action so I would say that about that that would be
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my response to you about uh I'll answer one other question quickly XI Jin ping
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stability you know I I listen we may just disagree here keaw I
1:03:01
think xiin ping is a leader who's very different from any of the prime
1:03:06
ministers any of the premieres or party General secretaries I watched from who
1:03:12
ya bang on down and I think it's a problem he is deeply involed victim culture he he
1:03:20
deeply believes in that sort of old ma Trope of hostile foreign forces are out
1:03:26
to overturn you know regime change all of these things not entirely untrue I might add but it is a problem that makes
1:03:34
it very difficult for China to be soluble in the world that the liberal
1:03:41
Democratic states live in even though they're in a fallen State of Grace often and I think this is a a huge danger and
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in this sense leadership matters K last word to you on any any of
1:03:56
these questions or a response or okay three quick questions firstly on the military Chinese military in Africa I I
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want to say this as respectfully as I can I would say I respect the
1:04:09
Africans if the Africans decide for their own security they want to have closer
1:04:15
military ties with the United States that's a good choice defendable choice if they want to
1:04:22
have good ties with China let them choose you know so please
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allow the Africans to decide for themselves I can tell you in
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private many Africans complain to me about the condescension they get when
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they make their own decision so I think it's very very important to to take the
1:04:45
view that Africans can judge for themselves what is good for them now on the question of xiin
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ping I actually uh believe believe that I think
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this what you express is the conventional view of the Anglo-Saxon
1:05:03
media the first point I'm going to make is that the conventional view of the
1:05:08
Anglo-Saxon uh media on xiin PING is not shared by most countries in the
1:05:15
world and I can tell you this that many of the world
1:05:20
leaders who have dealt with President XI face to face
1:05:26
deal with him discuss issues find him a sober and reasonable
1:05:34
interlocutor and the one point of which I would say where I have the maximum
1:05:39
amount of disagreement with oille is that oille portrays a
1:05:47
man whose dream is to revive Marxism
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leninism to revive communism that's not how most Asians see
1:05:58
shei we see shei as someone who believes that China has been a great
1:06:06
civilization it has had 100 bad years it's time for Chinese civilization to
1:06:13
come back so if he has a dream the dream has nothing to do with communism Marxism
1:06:19
leninism even though it is China is run by the Chinese Communist party it is an instrument the Chinese Communist party
1:06:26
is an instrument that has been used to revive what Chi chin ping believes to be
1:06:32
a great civilization so that's his end goal but I think the most important question was
1:06:39
the last question and I completely agree with you that our planet is endangered
1:06:44
in many different ways and you spell them out and frankly that's why in my
1:06:50
book you know the great convergence I say that the world has changed fundamentally and to explain how change
1:06:56
fundamentally I use a very simple boat analogy and I hope you'll reflect on
1:07:01
this boat analogy in the past when we live in 193 separate C separate
1:07:07
countries it was as though we were living 193 separate boats right so we could decide what to
1:07:14
do on our boat so if one boat got Co the other boats wouldn't get it they're in
1:07:20
different boats but the world has shrunk and I really mean that literally we no longer
1:07:27
live in 193 separate boats we live on 193 separate cabins on
1:07:35
the same boat now if you on a boat together and
1:07:40
the boat begins to sink the stupidest thing to do is to lock up your cabin and
1:07:46
say I'll protect my cabin and that's exactly what we are
1:07:52
doing which is bizarre we're supposed to represent the most intelligent species
1:07:57
on planet Earth but we doing something completely stupid in response to these great
1:08:04
planetary challenges and that's why I say the wisest thing you can do about this geopolitical contest between us and
1:08:11
China at least just press the pause button for a while look at what's
1:08:17
happening in the world focus on the real Global challenges maybe after we fix
1:08:23
them then we can go back to the squabbles thank
1:08:28
you all right we have reached thank you guys all so much we've reached time I
1:08:34
think that we have not resolved the US China rivalry but hopefully um you were
1:08:41
entertained and also if we can keep having conversations like this including um bringing prominent Asian experts to
1:08:49
this New York audience at the Asia Society we have a much better chance of of being in enlightened wise captains of
1:08:58
this boat that we are all in
